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Monte Carlo algorithm degradation profile


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We are applying MC method for calculating module degradation along the years at non-uniform aging (certain mismatch) and we are seeing a curious shape of the curve with 2 slope turning points (2 "humps") as i m attaching. Does it answer to any physical cause?




... Should not be more homogeneous as in the middle of the period it does not exist any appreciative event?

BR Jose

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  • 2 months later...


There are actually breaks in the slope every 5 years, only two of them are more extreme than the others. This is due to the mismatch values that are generated by Monte-Carlo (you see them given for every 5 years).

This degradation is “random” in nature, so some erraticism is to be expected. The current code’s philosophy is that since this is a random model, that does not reflect “real values” for which we have good time series (unlike weather for which the statistics can be known over many years), there won't be much to gain in having a more fine-grained approach.

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