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PVsyst compounded uncertainty


1Plasmon
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Hello,

I would like to know if someone knows how to define a closure formula or the product of the set of key parameters in PVsyst where one could estimate the min and max bound on the output energy? I know there is a generally reported uncertainty on PVsyst of ~ +- 3%.

What are the min/max (%) values in PVsyst loss diagram that I can consider against my simulation of any project?

The closest closure formula would be like Power output of PVUSA rating.

Regards

Al

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  • 4 weeks later...

To my mind, this is not really possible, because this is related to many parameters that you can choose as you like.

The main uncertainties are:

- The meteo input values (RMS of the order of 4-5% from year to year, discrepanciesw > 10% between differnt sources of data, climate evolution, etc),

- The exact behaviour of the PV moudles by respect to their specifications (in the "Module quality loss" and LID parameters)

- You parameters like soiling losses (very sit-dependent)

- etc.

However a study has been performed on a great number of PVsyst sudies during several years by different engineers:

ANALYSIS OF HISTORICAL ENERGY ESTIMATES FOR 235 PV SYSTEMS INSTALLED FROM 2007 TO 2011 IN THE USA

Joe Philip, Anastasios Golnas

SunEdison

27th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition, Frankfurt, September 2013.

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