Climate change meteo variability in energy management

[Bilal Shahid]

Hi, 

I wanted to know the significance of climate change % in energy management in P50/P90 estimation. What value should be plugged in and what's the basis of it? I have seen that increasing % improves the energy numbers. Is there any research article to refer to or white paper that established what % to use with confidence level?

Also, any suggestions to accommodate climate change impact in energy modeling would be welcome.

 

Thanks,

Bilal 

Sr Resource Analyst

Liberty, 

[Michele Oliosi]

Hi,

The idea is to model upwards or downwards historical trends in terms of PV yield for a specific location. As you probably already understand, these trends depend completely on the location, and may be quite difficult to forecast. However if you are able to estimate this trend, then this tool will let you raise or lower the value used as P50.

One simple case is when you are using older weather data. In that case you want to find whether the present weather yields more than past weather. Since it is historical data, you can more easily find documented trends for the specific location under study, either from publications or directly studying time-series data.

The second case if forecasting, which of course is more difficult. Nonetheless you may be able to find some climate change forecast scenarios depending on your location. For example in Switzerland, the national centre for climate services provides this kind of information.